Tenant satisfaction predicts vacancy rates and rent.

テナント満足度は、空室率と賃料を予測する

Research Focus

Tenant satisfaction, often seen merely as a customer service metric, has for the first time been quantitatively proven by extensive academic research to be a key management indicator directly linked to rental income, vacancy rates, and asset value.

Minyi Hu, Nils Kok, and Juan Palacios (2024) from Maastricht University quantified the relationship between tenant satisfaction and property profitability by cross-referencing over 120,000 tenant surveys from 2,906 office buildings in the U.S. with CoStar financial data. This study is included in the MIT Center for Real Estate Research Working Paper Series.


Key Findings: Three Metrics

Satisfaction is rated on a 1-5 scale (1=Poor, 5=Excellent). The sample average is 4.34.

+8.6%
Increased Renewal Intent
Increase in lease renewal intent per 1-point rise in satisfaction (on a 5-point scale)
−14.6pts
Lower Turnover Probability
Decrease in actual turnover probability per 1-point rise in satisfaction (on a 5-point scale)
−0.3pt
Improved Vacancy Rate
Reduction in vacancy rate change per 10% increase in average building satisfaction

Discussion: Surveys as a "Leading Indicator"

"Tenant satisfaction serves as a leading indicator, predicting future trends in rent levels and vacancy rates." This discovery means that surveys are an asset management decision-making tool for owners.

Notably, the same correlation was observed not only in "expressed intent to vacate" but also in "actual moving behavior" as cross-referenced with CoStar data. Surveys are one of the few points of contact that can capture both tenants' true feelings and their actions simultaneously.

Mechanism by which Satisfaction Leads to Value

Satisfaction Score (High) Increased Renewal Rate Decreased Vacancy Rate Improved Effective Rent

* Tenant surveys are a measurement tool for assessing satisfaction scores. This research indicates that the level of these scores serves as a leading indicator for future profitability metrics.


Implications for NOI

Pathways to NOI impact Inference from the paper

Effective Rent Growth + Lower Vacancy Rate = Improved Revenue + Reduced Turnover Costs Increased NOI

While this study does not directly analyze NOI, a strong positive impact on NOI is suggested through both effective rent growth (+0.9% for a 10% increase in satisfaction) and improved vacancy rates (−0.3 points). Higher tenant retention also contributes to cost reductions in leasing expenses, free rent, and interior construction burden.


Two Factors Driving Satisfaction

The research also analyzes what drives satisfaction, revealing two particularly noteworthy mediating factors.

Factor 01

Green Certifications (LEED / EnergyStar / WELL)

Tenant satisfaction significantly increases after certification, and this effect, through "improved satisfaction," also spreads to recommendation intent.

Factor 02

Quality of Property Management

After replacing PM with a highly-rated team, both satisfaction and renewal intent significantly improved. The quality of PM response directly impacts retention.

Impact on Financial Indicators (per 10% increase in satisfaction)

Gross Rent Growth
+0.2%
Effective Rent Growth
+0.9%
Vacancy Rate Change
−0.3pt

Stronger Correlation Post-COVID

Since COVID-19, the correlation between satisfaction and moving behavior has strengthened. As remote work becomes established and tenant companies re-evaluate "what they seek in an office," the impact of building experience quality on lease decisions has grown.

It's also important that pre-COVID satisfaction scores significantly predicted post-COVID moving decisions. The insight that tenants' "remembered experiences" shape their future decisions highlights the importance of continuous engagement even during normal times.


Implications for GOYOH

Tenant surveys are shifting from merely being "conducted" to being "utilized." Regular monitoring of scores and strategic reflection in property management quality and capital investment will be a competitive edge for asset management in the next era.

Reducing information asymmetry and creating an environment where tenants and owners share the same data is the most sustainable approach to lowering leasing costs, reducing vacancy risk, and protecting long-term property value.


Let us handle your tenant surveys completely.

GOYOH offers standalone tenant survey plans for offices (EaSyGo) and residences (ResiGo). We provide comprehensive support for GRESB compliance, results tabulation, reporting, and cross-portfolio comparisons.

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Source

Minyi Hu, Nils Kok, Juan Palacios (Maastricht University)
"Tenant Satisfaction and Commercial Building Performance"
MIT Center for Real Estate Research Working Paper No. 24/01, January 2024

https://ssrn.com/abstract=4721577

* The references to NOI are inferences based on the paper's findings and are not direct analytical results. This article summarizes and introduces the paper's findings. It does not reprint or reproduce the original text.